Dr. Z's Ole Miss Preview

"What is it with Ole Miss and crazy people on the sideline?"

Houston Nutt is crazy. I know, tell you something you didn't know. Remember last year when he was rumored to be our next coach at Auburn? I fumed for a few minutes until I realized it wasn't true, because not only is he crazy, but he is a mediocre coach at best. If we get into a comparison, I am happy to have Coach Chiz and Co.

Which bring me to my next point. Our friend Jerry over at warblogeagle.com took me to task (in a really nice way) over my comments last week about Auburn getting worse while other SEC schools,namely Miss St. and Tennessee are improving as the season rolls along:

Another grenade I’ve seen lobbed at Chizik and Co. from multiple angles–one handy example, though Dr. Z is generally on point–is that Tennessee and Miss. St. are improving while Auburn is not.

First, this kind of overlooks the fact that a big reason Mullen and Kiffin have room for improvement in the first place is because Chizik whipped them both. Second, those teams’ “improvement” is overblown: Miss. St.’s best performance remains the shoulda-been win over LSU, and that happened one week after Auburn torched them. As for Kiffin, he’s done a great job getting Crompton’s head finally screwed on properly, but that’s been the only real difference in the UT of the first several weeks and the last few–their QB wakes up, ours falls apart, and that alone is enough to make Kiffin the better coach, even after he lost to Chizik in Knoxville?

Jerry makes some valid points as always, but it still does not change the fact in my eyes that on the field as a whole we regressed. We can blame that on all of the the different things that have occurred. Attrition, injuries, Tuberville, etc.

Rob talked earlier in the year about the enthusiasm of the coaching staff. He wondered out loud about what happens when things weren't going well. I think we are seeing some of that now, because to me we are not handling the adversity well.

I still believe that we can get it done, but I am as anxious as ever about the state and future of our program. Maybe the guys over at trackem are right with the 6-6 Saban first year comparison at Bama, but that guy at the airport stills screams "5-19, 5-19" in the back of my head. Anyway on to the game:

This is another chance for Auburn to climb to 7 or 8 wins on the year I still see us having a chance in the UGA game and hope springs eternal for the Bama game. Few wishes for us in this one:
1.Todd makes some throws.
2. If #1 doesn't happen, then Caudle makes some throws. His feet also can help us as well.
3. Get Mario some touches. I'd love to see him wildcat. Kodi's beat up, and he also needs some dental work after LSU.
4. Bring some heat Ted! Rob's right. We need to bring the noise with a blitz or two. Make Jevan Snead beat us deep or force a pick or two. It may be our only chance defensively. The 10 yard cushion is killing us.

Finally if I have sounded pessimistic lately, my apologies to all. I think I got too excited too early about this team. Now I am made of disappointment.

Oh yeah, the pick:
Hotty Totties 27
Auburn 13

Ole Miss Preview

There's really not much to say. Coach Chizik has made it clear Chris Todd is his guy at QB. My opinion has been and will remain Chris Todd is damaged goods, a mere shell of his former self. I fully recognize I could be wrong, but based on the last 3 games performances as my evidence, including an amazingly putrid 47 yards against LSU, I rest my case.

I realize Chris Todd can't keep Lee Ziemba from jumping offsides, or Andrew McCain from holding, or Darvin Adams from dropping a ball on 3rd and 7. And he sure can't keep PPL from muffing punts, Zack Etheridge from running by a ball-carrier, or Neiko Thorpe cover a receiver down the sideline. Chizik is right, the entire blame can not be completely placed at the feet of Chris Todd. But, when you look at the one constant the past 3 weeks that has changed drastically from weeks 1-5, it is the play of Chris Todd. As Todd goes, Auburn goes! When we were winning, Ziemba was still jumping offsides, PPL was muffing punts, Etheridge was missing tackles, the defense was getting ripped-to-shreds, but Chris Todd was picking up the slack and making plays with his newly constructed right arm.

I'd like to predict great things this week...a return to winning ways, a productive offense, a defense that tackles well and forces turnovers, a kicking game that is helpful rather than a burden to overcome. Unfortunately, Ole Miss is a terrible match-up for Auburn. Defensively, Ole Miss is everything a traditional SEC defense is known for...fast, aggressive, and tough against the run. Offensively, they have the closest thing to Noel Devine we'll see all year in Dexter McCluster (remember Devine as the guy we still haven't tackled 2 years in a row from West Virginia!!) and a quarterback that, when on, has the potential to be one of the best in the land. The combination of the ability to pound you in the running game, spread you out with the passing threat of Jevan Snead, and find creases with McCluster, it should make for a long day defensively. Our only chance is for Snead to play miserable, our defense to play lights out, and our offense to outscore a mistake prone Ole Miss Rebel squad. Which leads us back to Chris Todd. Can he do it? I hope he can. Will he do it? I don't think so. Prove me wrong Chris! Crow would never taste so succulent!

AU-16
Ole Miss-29

LSU Reax: Oh the Humanity

This about sums it up*.

I had a bad feeling this might happen. The fatigue, LSU's week off, superior depth and talent. Yet I still expected more of a fight. I had no idea we'd get absolutely dominated by LSU.

What really bugs me is looking around the league, teams with new coaches seem to have gotten better. Tennessee is vastly improved. Mississippi St. played Florida off its feet.

And Auburn is worse. Much worse. We knew there would be struggles this year, growing pains,etc. But this team seems to have imploded, like nothing I have ever seen before.

Sure there are injuries, depth issues, scholarship atrition, but none of us expected to see this. None of us expected to get blown out from wire to wire. It is disturbing to say the least.

Like Rob, I do not think it is time to jump ship. I do think even after the great first 5 games Chris Todd played, it is time to give Neil Caudle a look.

Defensively, I don't even know where to begin. Little pass rush, too much cushion, poor tacklng. This is the worst Auburn defense I have ever seen. Hands down.

Special teams. Was that a sky kick that wasn't so sky on the kickoffs? What has happened to Durst?

So in summary, other than offense, defense, and special teams, I guess we are Ok.

Looks like I may get to watch Auburn at Legion Field again, in the Papa Johns pizza bowl. Oh Joy.

*Hindenberg was to me the best way to describe the season so far. Open to other suggestions.

LSU Review (10-31)

Had I made the trip to Baton Rouge...I'd ask for a refund. The Auburn Tigers never showed up for this one (the understatement of the year)! After an all-out assault on Auburn's manhood, questions abound...

What in the world has happened to our team in a three week time span? How do you go from an explosive, high powered, effecient offense and be reduced to the anemic, puzzled, penalty-laden group we saw Saturday against LSU? How do you continually allow young, inexperienced quarterbacks that have played pathetic football look like world beaters against our defense? Why can a LSU offense, incapable of running the football against anyone this season, continually gash our front seven for large gainers? Isn't our front seven the same guys that played last season? Weren't they considered the "strength" of not only our defense, but our entire team? What is the deal with all the penalties? Is Chris Todd healthy (I think not), and if so please explain his cataclysmic demise?

To be fair, the referees were no friends of Auburn to start this game. To win at Death Valley, at night, on ESPN, against a LSU team coming off of a bye week having lost their last game is about as close to impossible as there is. When the refs show up viewing the game through purple and gold lenses, you don't stand a chance! The first drives both teams had were stopped (Auburn's) and sustained (LSU's) solely by the one-sided calls of the zebras. It was blatantly biased and complete BS. I thought the rest of the game was called okay, but the tone had been set, their damage had been done.

What we're seeing now is a team with zero confidence. They've been embarrassed in Fayetteville, unable to stop Kentucky, and completely dismantled by LSU. Lurking just beneath the surface are the same character issues we struggled with last year when things get difficult. We've seen players dismissed from the team (Adams), players noticeably regress (fill in the blank with your players of choice), a seemingly disinterest and ambivalent attitude with poor play. You wonder how long before the finger pointing starts, has it already started, do the players believe in the system, their quarterback, their coaches? Remember, most of these players did not choose to play for these coaches...and I've seen first hand how smoothly things run when things are going well, and how disasterous things are when the wheels start coming off and your dealing with a perceived "outsider".

I personally believe in Coach Chizik and believe with time will return Auburn to Atlanta and beyond. I do have an enormous question mark hanging over the head of Ted Roof. Do I believe he should be one and done...absolutely not. But thus far, I have been woefully unimpressed with the scheme, the lack of production, the inablilty to do anything well. He deserves a chance to get "his guys" in place, but he'll feel the heat to drastically improve next season. The good news for Roof, it can't get any worse!

Back to the LSU game...

-Add McCalebb to my unofficial list of guys not performing due to injury (with Chris Todd, and Antonio Coleman). McCalebb ran with minimal aggression and went down with ease. Perhaps LSU equalized his greatest asset, his speed, thus reducing McCalebb's play-making abilities.

-Our receivers have not helped Todd in the least. Unless they're wide open (which is rare), I can't remember a receiver making a catch after taking a big hit, sandwiched between defenders. Is it tough to do...yep. Does every other SEC team have receivers that do it week in and week out...yep. Perhaps the timing is off, but they look like a group, as a whole, in complete shambles.

-AREA OF IMPROVEMENT- OUTSIDE LINEBACKER- Eltoro Freeman played every snap at weakside linebacker and was the lone bright spot of the game. Welcome to the 2009 football season 'Toro!

-Todd looks terrible...again! Got to believe Neil Caudle gets more reps this week in practice. I like Todd, and believe all he overcame to even take another snap in an Auburn uniform is nothing short of amazing. But Todd is not the Chris Todd of weeks 1-5 (not even close). Consecutive games under 100 yards passing (47 yards against LSU!!!???) and that's enough to convince me it's time to look elsewhere for production.

-Defensively I've given up. I'll no longer emotionally invest myself in a unit so willing to give up rushing yards and passing statistics to teams with green quarterbacks. To win from here on out we'll have to outscore whoever we play, which coming off a less than 200 yard offensive output, I'm not holding my breath.

At this point in the season, we can pack it in or we can make some widesweeping changes. My intitial plan would be a change at quarterback. I would find someone capable of delivering the ball on time and effeciently. Defensively, I blitz every play. And not one person zone blitzing where you hope you guess right. No, I bring more than they can block at every conceivable opportunity--and I live and die by it. Many times we'll get burned, many times we will make something happen. Either way we get the offense back onto the field in hopes of finding a rhythm and scoring points. Prognosis at week 8--on life support!

Dr.Z's LSU preview

"Welibapayanoduda"-

Once again it's time for our trip to America's version of a third world country also known as Louisiana. I had the unfortunate privilege of living in this State a few years ago as an intern. My wife and I did an internship in Shreveport. Most people in Purple Tiger land consider Shreveport east Texas, but make no mistake, there a plenty of obnoxious LSU fans here.

True story here: We had a patient here who came up for a consult from South Louisiana who had her eyes removed by a voodoo lady because she was seeing devils. She came in with bandages over both eyes and her LSU t-shirt. My take home from that case was LSU fans were hardcore..and possibly insane.

My only trip to campus was as a student in 97. The fans around the stadium were OK if you ran into the right ones. I got to sample some really good gumbo, jambalaya, and alligator. But I also endured some really foul language. I pretty sure this guy was swearing at me in a language that was part English, part french and part martian, but I am just not sure. I left the game happy, as Dameyune Craig and Auburn pulled out the victory on the way to an SEC West title. I also left reeking of bourbon, because LSU fans love to throw their bourbon when they score, and corndogs, and we all know the reason for that by now.

If you are a single guy and headed down, be careful about the women you hit on, because she just might be a voodoo woman. If this chick to the right is tailgaiting, I'd steer clear.
As for the game, I just don't know. If Auburn week 1-5 shows up, then we have a good shot to win. Week 6 or 7 Auburn? we could be in for a 2003 type Baton Rouge beatdown.

My big cause for concern is stopping that run game. Rob is right, the LSU offense is very much like Kentucky, with better players. Charles Scott is a great back and shredded our defense last year when we were still considered a great defense. That being said, LSU has not exactly been an offensive juggernaut this year. Les Miles has tended to outsmart himself (probably not hard to do) on the offensive side.

Defensively, LSU has also underwhelmed considering the immense talent they have. They are in the process of learning a new system under John Chavis, who is a respected longtime D-cord, but something hasn't clicked yet. They improved some two weeks ago against Florida, who now appears to be very mediocre on offense.

Given that LSU has had a week off to stew over that loss to Florida, and given Baton Rouge at home at night, I do not have good feeling here. To be 100% honest, my concern is not LSU, it's Auburn. We look tired and beat up physically and mentally. I'd love to say we could catch lightning in a bottle, but I just cannot see it happening Saturday night. Hoping I am dead wrong....

Auburn 14
Corn Dogs 24

LSU Preview

When Les Miles was a kid he must have collected Monopoly "Get Out of Jail Free" cards. I've never seen a team escape so many "there's no chance they win" situations only to come back and miraculously win. Amazingly his LSU teams are able to overcome not only insurmountable circumstances, but they consistently do it in spite of their foolish coach. They enter each game with two opponents...the one standing across the field and the man who calls their shots. It's an amazing thing to watch.

The best thing Auburn has going for it against LSU is the Bengal Tigers seem to always play to the level of their opponent. If they play UAB or USC it seems to always come down to 4th and 8 and they convert despite Miles trying to change the play or call timeout or run the ball when a pass is the logical play call. Every game LSU has played this season the outcome has been in question in the fourth quarter, including leading Vandy 16-9 in the fourth. They should have lost to Georgia were it not for the referees giving LSU the game. They should have lost to Mississippi State were it not for MSU getting cute on the goal line. The point is, they repeatedly find themselves in a fight down to the wire against the best teams in America as well as the worst teams in this conference.

LSU's offense has been terrible this season. Either their QB has zero confidence or the coaching staff zero confidence in him (probably a bit of both), but their passing game has been poor. With their top two tailbacks returning including the biggest and smallest back duo maybe ever, conventional wisdom was the running game was going to be dominant on the Bayou this year. Surprisingly, itt hasn't been good either. The problem...if you can't pass the ball with some success you can't run the ball with any success(unless you're Kentucky playing Auburn at night in Jordan-Hare with a true freshman QB....). Teams have loaded up the box and have dared Jordan Jefferson to beat them. He's not that talented.

Auburn's problem is LSU represents everything Kentucky was...only bigger, faster, and stronger at every single position. Auburn knew Kentucky had to run the football to win the football game and we could not stop them. LSU enters with the same plan, only two weeks to study tendencies, weaknesses, add new wrinkles, and chart a plan of attack.

Defensively, LSU will be the best defense we've played to date, perhaps the best we'll play all year save Alabama's. I'd be shocked if Ben Tate rushes for over 100 yards in this one. The only way that happens is if Chris Todd can squeeze the ball in to tightly covered receivers with pressure in his face. If it's Chris Todd games 1-5 we have a shot. If it's dead arm Chris Todd from Fayetteville and against UK, we lose big.

The key to this game will be our offenses ability to stay on the football field. If we keep the defense on the field all night, LSU wears us down in a hurry with their big backs and athletic QB. But if we sustain drives and keep the defense off balance by mixing up personnel groupings, spreading the ball around, taking strategic shots downfield successfully, and running the ball enough to keep them honest then we can win this game.

Unfortunately, I don't think Chris Todd is healthy (whether it's fatigue or reinjury) and until he proves otherwise, I expect to see a repeat of the last two weeks. His play affects our ability to run the ball, our ability to play defense at a high level (mind you that bar has been set awfully low this season), and ultimately our ability to win games. It all hinges on him. Is that unfair?---yes it probably is. That's a lot of pressure for one person to strap on their back. But that's what the Gus Malzahn offense requires, solid, consistent, efficient distribution from the QB position. It'll be close, but the Cajuns have some sort of voodoo magic to seemingly make the ball bounce their way.

AU-16
LSU-26

Couple more random thoughts

Let me say for the record, that's not Dr. Rob at the porclain throne in the my picture after the UK game. I've gotten a couple of texts about taking pictures of Rob in his underwear. So just to clear that up...

After the presser today w/ Chiz, its blatantly obvious that everyone sees problems and asking questions about our weakside LB situation. Could it be that Ted Roof has what we in the eyecare/bloggin world call Gran's syndrome*?

Gran's syndrome is a condition where although you have a better specimen/talent at a position you become myopic in your coaching and decide to go with a "safer" option at that spot. Here are a few examples:

1999 RB Clifton Robinson over Heath Evans(yeah, that Heath Evans who still plays for New Orleans). Legend has it that early on, Evans went to Gran and told him "I'm the best back you've got." Gran didn't like the bravado I suppose. Evans finally started the Georgia game that year. Auburn led 31-3 at the half.

2003 Cadillac/Ronnie 1st/2nd string. 3rd string Tre Smith(!). Brandon Jacobs 4th string. OK, so more forgivable here. Except for the Tre ahead of Jacobs. Maybe Gran made them do cartwheels over the goal line to see who is next in line. Jacobs transferred and now is the feature back for the New York Football Giants.

2005 The disease at its worst-Tre Smith starts ahead of Kenny Irons (Cartwheels again?) in the Ga Tech game. We can't run the ball at all, and Brandon Cox throws it like 50 times in that game with 4 picks, and we lose. We flouder for a few more weeks. Kenny didn't know the blocking schemes, or so we were told. He figured it out in time for the LSU game, where he famously predicted going for 200+ and backed it up.. Again, maybe it was just too much bravado for Gran to take?

So here we are in 2009, Ted Roof has a cocky, green, all-world juco transfer. He elects for the safe choice in Herring. All of this is totally hypothetical, of course. But I keep hearing similar things. Doesn't know the defense, just not ready, etc. Eltoro was even MIA for the Arkansas game, which tells me its doghouse or injury (likely the former).

Maybe he's in the doghouse. Maybe he really doesn't know the defense. But it's base defense. We don't appear to have any wrinkles/twists/complexities that are hard to learn.(Rob might elaborate more here).

My fear/conspiracy theory is Roof is upset with his talented, confident (borderline cocky) Toro and going with Herring, who is just absolutely getting killed out there.

I know its silly to speculate, but with our depth issues at LB, we need this guy. If it really is a knowledge thing, get him a football tutor. I bet a guy as talented as Freeman can make up for most of it.

Love to hear anyone's thoughts on this silly rambling while I finish my last patient of the day.

* OK, really not a disease, and I love Eddie Gran, but he seemed to miss sometimes with his choices in the RB rotation over the years.